Leaders don’t fail because they lack intelligence.
They fail because uncertainty hijacks the brain.

A new neuroscience review shows that when ambiguity rises, your emotional system takes control — pushing you toward impulsive, short-term decisions.

A major new scoping review led by Laura Colautti, Alessandro Antonietti, and Paola Iannello (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) reveals a profound truth about modern leadership:

Every executive decision is shaped by a silent competition inside the brain — a battle between emotional and rational executive systems.

Executive Functions in Decision…

In an era defined by volatility, ambiguity, and constant acceleration, this research offers a scientific lens for understanding why even top performers sometimes make brilliant decisions… and other times catastrophic ones.

The Hidden Architecture of Leadership Decisions

Traditional leadership models assume decisions rise from intelligence, experience, intuition, or strategic frameworks.
The new research shows something radically different:

Leaders actually switch between two neurological systems depending on how much information they have.

These systems — known as Hot Executive Functions and Cold Executive Functions — control how the brain responds to ambiguity and risk.

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Hot Executive Functions (Emotion-Driven)

Activated when outcomes are unclear (ambiguity).
Characteristics:

• fast, instinctive reactions

• reward sensitivity

• impulsive risk-taking

• “gut feeling” dominance

Cold Executive Functions (Cognitive-Controlled)

Activated when information becomes clearer (risk known).
Characteristics:

• strategic reasoning

• scenario evaluation

• inhibition of impulses

• long-term thinking

The study demonstrates that effective leadership is largely determined by the balance between these two systems — not by IQ, title, or years of experience.

What Happens When a Leader Faces Uncertainty

When uncertainty rises, your brain switches off strategy—and turns on survival. Turn uncertainty into your power—activate the leader your brain was built to be.

The researchers analyzed performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (ambiguity) and the Game of Dice Task (risk).
Their findings illuminate a universal pattern:

When uncertainty is high → Leaders default to emotion-driven decisions.

When probabilities become known → Rational executive systems take over.

This shift explains why CEOs can be decisive in one moment and erratic in the next.
It also clarifies why crises — when ambiguity is extreme — lead to reactive, short-term, and sometimes irrational decisions.

Why This Matters for the Global Business Community

Recent global data reinforces why these neuroscientific findings matter now more than ever.
According to RRA’s Global Leadership Monitor (March 2025):

• 63% of leaders cite uncertain economic growth as the top threat — the highest among all risks.

• Yet only 40% feel prepared to confront these challenges — the lowest readiness level since 2021.

• And within the past six months, concern around geopolitics, policy uncertainty, and trade conflicts has surged sharply.

This widening gap between rising uncertainty and declining readiness mirrors the neuroscientific reality uncovered in the review:

When uncertainty spikes, leaders are pushed into emotional systems of decision-making — unless their cognitive executive functions are strong enough to counterbalance it.

1. Strategic Decision Quality Is Neurocognitive — Not Just Behavioral

Cold Executive Functions such as working memory, inhibition, and cognitive flexibility predict:

• better risk assessment

• improved long-term thinking

• fewer impulsive errors

• stronger crisis performance

These abilities are trainable, which opens new doors for leadership development.

2. Experience Alone Does Not Prevent Risky Decisions

The review found that older adults make riskier decisions, not because they are bolder, but because aging reduces the brain’s ability to anticipate negative outcomes.
This has major implications for:

• corporate governance

• board decision frameworks

• succession planning

• executive coaching

3. Emotion and Reason Are Not Opposites — They Are Dynamic Partners

The research shows that Hot and Cold EF systems interact constantly, and successful leaders learn how to regulate the transition between them.

This is the basis of modern cognitive-performance leadership.

The Authors’ Contribution to Leadership Science

Colautti, Antonietti, and Iannello provide a comprehensive map of how decision-making unfolds under uncertainty and risk.
Their review integrates:

• neuroanatomy (dlPFC, mPFC, ACC, OFC)

• dopamine reward pathways

• executive function models (Miyake, Diamond)

• behavioral performance across 11 empirical studies

Their central conclusion:

Leadership decisions emerge from a complex interplay of emotional and rational systems — and disruptions in either can lead to costly mistakes.

Executive Functions in Decision…

This insight places executive decision-making firmly within the domain of cognitive neuroscience.

New York Business Excellence Leadership Perspective

NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang calls uncertainty a creator, not a threat. His rise shows this: leaders who stay cognitively flexible turn ambiguity into breakthrough opportunity.

Just like Satya Nadella transformed Microsoft by shifting from ‘know-it-all’ to ‘learn-it-all,’ today’s leaders must strengthen their executive mindset to stay rational under uncertainty.

In a world where artificial intelligence accelerates information flow and raises the cost of poor judgment, leaders cannot rely solely on intuition, experience, or intelligence.

They must cultivate Executive Cognitive Energy — the mental capacity to stay strategic even when the world becomes unpredictable.

And this is where the science aligns directly with the philosophy of MAX ENERGY:

When a leader strengthens their cognitive energy — their inner executive functions — they activate the Inner CEO™ that transforms uncertainty into clarity, pressure into performance, and decisions into impact.

This is the next frontier of leadership.

If leaders don’t strengthen their executive functions — focus, inhibition, cognitive flexibility — uncertainty will always win.
The future belongs to those who can activate their Inner CEO™ and turn cognitive energy into competitive advantage.

Leonardo da Vinci taught us that clarity emerges when curiosity meets discipline. In uncertain times, leaders must think like Da Vinci—seeing patterns others miss and turning chaos into creativity.

Hillier Consulting – Executive Perspective

“Uncertainty does not weaken great leaders—it reveals their next level.”

In times of rising uncertainty, great leaders are not defined by perfect foresight—but by their ability to stay mentally agile when the world becomes unpredictable.

At Hillier, we believe every executive can elevate their performance by strengthening the cognitive capacities that fuel strategic clarity, emotional steadiness, and bold decision-making. When leaders learn to regulate their inner state, uncertainty transforms from a threat into a catalyst for innovation, courage, and forward momentum.

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