“Decisions and Revisions: The Affective Forecasting of Changeable Outcomes,” published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, has become one of the most cited studies in the psychology of decision-making. In it, Harvard psychologist Daniel T. Gilbert and MIT’s Jane E. J. Ebert show that people make a systematic error when they predict how they will feel after a decision.
As the authors put it: “The results demonstrate that errors in affective forecasting can lead people to behave in ways that do not optimize their happiness and well-being.”
Study 1: Which photograph will you keep?
The researchers recruited Harvard students who wanted to learn black-and-white photography. Each participant shot 12 photographs around campus, printed their two favorites, and was then asked to keep one and give the other away.
Some participants were told they could change their minds and swap the prints within a few days. Others were told their choice was final.
The results were striking. Those whose decision was final grew to like their chosen print more over the following days. Those who could change their minds liked theirs less. The difference persisted even after the opportunity to swap had expired.
The most revealing detail: of the participants given the option to exchange their print, only one actually did. Keeping the option open was almost never used, yet it still reduced satisfaction.
Study 2: Monet or Van Gogh?
In a second study, Harvard students ranked nine framed posters of works by artists such as Claude Monet, Vincent van Gogh and El Greco, then chose between their third- and fourth-ranked posters to take home.
Just 15 minutes later, the difference had already appeared. Participants whose choice was final liked their poster more. Those who could still change their minds showed no such increase. Participants asked to predict the outcome, meanwhile, did not expect changeability to affect their feelings at all.
We still want the door open
In a final study, the researchers described both versions of the experiment to Harvard students and asked which one they would prefer to join. 66.3% chose the version in which they could change their minds, and 84.3% believed the average student would choose it as well.
In other words, people knowingly prefer the option that leaves them least satisfied.
How the mind “manufactures” satisfaction
According to the researchers, once a decision is final, the mind activates psychological processes that help us see the chosen option in its best light. The possibility of reversing the decision interrupts those processes. In the authors’ words:
“Our studies show that people prefer to have the opportunity to change their outcomes, and believe such opportunities will not influence their experience of those outcomes, but that, in fact, these opportunities inhibit the psychological processes that would otherwise have helped them manufacture satisfaction.”
The authors open their general discussion with a memorable line:
“Smart people do foolish things, and these things tend to be of two sorts.”
The first sort, they explain, are choices that trade long-term costs for short-term pleasure. The second, more insidious sort are choices people make because they do not foresee their costs. A preference for changeability, the study suggests, often belongs to the second category.
Changeability is not always bad
The authors are careful to strike a balance. When the consequences of a decision are unclear in advance, or the risk of a truly dreadful mistake is high, as with a place of residence, a job or a marriage partner, the ability to change one’s mind can have real benefits. But as they note, “the potential advantages are clear and tempting, whereas at least one of the potential disadvantages is not easily predicted.”
The paper also offers an observation for business:
“Indeed, businesses count on this. Stores allow customers to return merchandise with which they are dissatisfied only because they know that the vast majority of dissatisfied customers will never exercise that option.”
Gilbert and Ebert close with an image that captures their finding:
“If life is an apple, then its sweetness depends as much on the taster as the tasted.”
Source: Gilbert, D. T., & Ebert, J. E. J. (2002). Decisions and Revisions: The Affective Forecasting of Changeable Outcomes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 82(4), 503–514. DOI: 10.1037//0022-3514.82.4.503
